At long last, and just in time for election season ramping up, the North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation (NCFREE) is unveiling the 2024 Partisan District Scores. These scores provide a baseline estimation of partisanship for all 120 House and 50 Senate districts in North Carolina.
With this product, NCFREE aims to provide business leaders and the public with information about which districts are likely in play for the November election.
Currently, North Carolina Democrats are hoping to break the Republican supermajorities in either the House or Senate chamber. Political prognosticators, including NCFREE, give Democrats a better chance at breaking the 72-seat House Republican supermajority than breaking the 30-seat Senate Republican supermajority—although nothing is guaranteed.
Democrats would need to win four out of 10 competitive state House races and two out of three competitive state Senate races to break supermajorities in the respective chambers. Democrats would need to win four out of 10 competitive state House races and two out of three competitive state Senate races to break supermajorities in each respective chamber.
In this newsletter, we will be covering NCFREE’s ratings of every state legislative district. The Partisan District Scores do not account for candidate quality, fundraising, incumbency, name ID, or any factors other than the partisan voting records of each district.
If you want to get into the weeds, continue reading further down for in-depth analysis of each swing districts projected shifts in partisanship for 2024, providing a more well-rounded picture of what each district may look like if trends continue.
Also, stay tuned in the next few weeks for sponsorship opportunities for the 2024 Leadership Luncheon on November 20th at The Angus Barn.
Methodology Overview:
The Partisan District Scores are a head-to-head performance snapshot of recent elections. If our calculation has a Republican past performance over a Democrat as 53-47, this would be calculated as a R+6 district.
For example, we calculate Senate District 24 as a R+5.3. This means that in our package of statewide races, Republicans have held about a 5.3 percent advantage over the Democratic candidates in that district in the recent past.
Because our calculation only includes past races, the Partisan District Scores by themselves are not a prediction of 2024 candidate performance. Sometimes legislative candidates overperform or underperform statewide candidates, and there are numerous other factors to consider when making predictions.
Read NCFREE’s full methodology here.
State House:
There are approximately 10 districts we deem as competitive in the North Carolina House. They are House Districts 5, 24, 25, 32, 35, 37, 48, 98, 105, and 115.
Democrats need to win four of these seats to break the House Republican supermajority. Looking at just NCFREE’s Partisan District Scores, it appears the pathway for Democrats would begin in holding onto District 48, where Democrat Garland Pierce is the incumbent. They would then need to pick up District 32, currently held by Republican Frank Sossoman, and then win House District 98, a seat being vacated by Republican John Bradford.
Next up after that is House District 25, a seat held by Republican Allen Chesser and one that has been trending slightly more Republican the last few years (see further below). If Democrats fail to win any of those seats, they will have to look to districts that have historically been more favorable to Republicans for their path to the supermajority. However, if you add some context to our PDS ratings, you’ll find a different path to breaking the supermajority for Democrats.
NC House: Shifting from Red to Blue, and Blue to Red…
After calculating the PDS ratings, NCFREE looked at the partisan shifts each election cycle and calculated the total shift at the top of the ticket from 2016 to 2022 (seen in the far right column). Notably, many districts have shifted more than 10 percent in one direction or another in the last 6 years.
As one can see, if trends continue, traditionally Republican seats in Wake (Districts 35 & 37) and Mecklenburg Counties (Districts 98 & 105) will become Democratic seats. However, all four are competitive for 2024 and millions of dollars will be spent by both sides to win them. The path to Democrats breaking the supermajority almost certainly involves winning at least one of the four urban county seats, and they will likely need at least two.
State Senate:
There are 3 districts we deem as most competitive in the State Senate for 2024. They are Senate Districts 7, 11, and 18, and millions of dollars have already been dedicated to winning these seats.
Democrats need to win two of these seats to break the Senate Republican supermajority. Looking at just NCFREE’s Partisan District Scores, the pathway for Democrats begins in holding onto District 18, which is being vacated by Democrat Mary Wills Bode. Democrats then need to pick up one of either District 11, which is currently held by Republican Lisa Barnes, or 7, which is held by Republican Michael Lee.
NC Senate: Shifting from Red to Blue, and Blue to Red…
After calculating the PDS ratings, NCFREE looked at the partisan shifts from 2016 to 2022 and calculated the total shift at the top of the ticket during that timespan (seen in the far right column). We expect to see further shifts in 2024, likely in the same direction.
Projecting further Democratic shifting in Senate District 7 would make it even more competitive. Sen. Lisa Barnes (District 11) would be more favored to win her district if trends continue, although political prognosticators say this one will be extremely close. NCFREE’s rating for Senate District 18 favors Republicans by 2.1 percent, with a caveat that if trends hold constant, the district may trend further Democratic in 2024.
Thank you for reading, and we hope you enjoyed this edition of NCFREE’s biweekly newsletter. Please reach out to us with any questions, and stay tuned for more exciting updates from NCFREE soon.