Business NC: NCFREE provides insights on NC Senate races

by | October 29, 2024

Five N.C. Senate seats out of 50 may change N.C. political dynamic

The North Carolina Senate is now split between 30 Republican members and 20 Democrats, providing the three-fifths supermajority that has enabled the GOP to pass legislation and override Gov. Roy Cooper’s vetoes on repeated occasions.

The N.C. Democratic Party is pinning its hopes on gaining at least one Senate seat in the November election, taking away the supermajority power. The GOP also has a supermajority in the N.C. House, 72 to 48, with Democrats needing to pick up four seats to gain influence.

There are three hyper-competitive Senate seats, plus two more that could be in potential play, says Alex Baltzegar, executive director of the North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation, or NCFREE. Two seats are held by Republicans, three by Democrats.

More than $2 million is being spent on some of those races, mostly from the two party’s fundraising organizations, he says. Attorney General Josh Stein, who polls show is likely to trounce Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson in the gubernatorial campaign, has shifted $3 million to the House and Senate caucuses to support Democratic candidates.

These are the competitive races:

  • District 18, where Democratic candidate Terence Everitt is facing Ashlee Adams in what Baltzegar says is the most competitive Senate election. The district covers Granville County and a slice of Wake County. Everitt is a lawyer who served three terms in the N.C. House. Adams runs an event planning business in Wake Forest. Incumbent Mary Willis Bode, a Democrat, is stepping down.
  • District 11, which pits Republican incumbent Lisa Barnes versus Democratic candidate James Mercer. Barnes’ family operates a farming business, while Mercer is a retired military officer who runs a nonprofit. The district stretches from Rocky Mount to Henderson and the Virginia state line.
  • District 7 has Republican incumbent Michael Lee facing Democratic challenger David Hill. a pediatric physician. The district includes Wilmington. Democrats have spent about $1.25 million on the Lee-Hill race, less than in other ones where they may feel they have better chances, Baltzegar says.

Two other potentially tight Senate races are in Wake and Mecklenburg counties, Baltzegar says.

  • District 13, which covers fast-growing southern Wake, has Democratic incumbent Lisa Grafstein facing challenger Scott Lassiter. He gained fame for suing House Speaker Tim Moore over the fallout of an extramarital affair. Lassiter later dropped the suit. Grafstein is an employment lawyer. Lassiter is a public school administrator.
  •  District 42 in southeast Charlotte. The district has been represented by Democrat Rachel Hunt, who is running for lieutenant governor against Republican Hal Weatherman.

Hoping to succeed Hunt are two first-time candidates: Democrat Woodson Bradley and Republican Stacie McGinn. Bradley is a residential real estate broker, while McGinn was among a senior Bank of America attorney from 2004-11 and a former partner at two large New York law firms.

The nominees’ stands on issues, such as abortion, public school funding and tax policy, mirror their respective parties. Woodson stresses her advocacy for rights of domestic-abuse victims and increased school spending.

McGinn has focused her campaign on Bradley’s participation from 2008-13 in Fortune Hi-Tech Marketing, a direct-sales company that was placed into receivership after investigations by the Federal Trade Commission and several state attorneys general, including Roy Cooper. (He held the post for 16 years before being elected governor in 2016.)

Bradley noted she was among Fortune Hi-Tech’s largest earners, according to a now-deleted LinkedIn post. Bradley says she was an independent contractor and had no management authority.

The district leans Democratic and has not received major party funding, Baltzegar says.