NCFREE Releases 2026 Partisan District Scores for NC State Legislative Districts

Enhanced data model provides new clarity on NC’s legislative landscape

RALEIGH, NC – The North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation (NCFREE) today released its 2026 Partisan District Scores (PDS), an updated district-by-district analysis measuring the underlying party baseline of all 120 NC House and 50 Senate districts ahead of this year’s elections.

The 2026 release is NCFREE’s most advanced model to date, incorporating 2024 election results and a wider set of district demographic characteristics to better estimate district-level partisanship across the state. The new methodology is designed to provide business leaders, government affairs professionals, and civic leaders with a clearer understanding of where partisan control is secure and where races are competitive.

“Since 1983, NCFREE has been North Carolina’s trusted source for intelligence grounded in data and facts,” NCFREE Executive Director Alex Baltzegar said. “Our Partisan District Scores give business and civic leaders the context they need to understand the forces shaping legislative power so they can anticipate change and make better long-term decisions.”

Each Partisan District Score reflects the approximate partisan advantage of a district in a neutral two-party environment with any incumbent advantage removed. For example, a district rated R+6 suggests a generic Republican would be expected to win approximately 53 percent to 47 percent, while a D+6 district would indicate the same advantage for Democrats.

While previous iterations relied on composite snapshots of statewide races, the 2026 PDS model incorporates a more sophisticated analysis that models key demographic characteristics and distinguishes legislative partisanship from top-of-the-ticket races, providing a more precise estimation of a generic party advantage in each district. The scores do not account for candidate quality, fundraising, incumbency, or other individual factors. Read the full methodology here.

“North Carolina remains one of the most dynamic political states in the country, and district fundamentals remain foundational,” Cindy Morgan, a senior political advertising executive at Spectrum Reach and member of the NCFREE Board of Directors, said. “By strengthening our model with fresh election data and more comprehensive district-level inputs, NCFREE’s 2026 scores offer an enhanced understanding of where the battlegrounds truly are in November.”

Top 10 Most Competitive Districts (By 2026 PDS)

• House District 37 (Wake County): D+0.3. Candidates: Rep. Erin Paré (R) vs. Winn Decker (D)
• House District 35 (Wake County): R+0.3. Candidates: Rep. Mike Schietzelt (R) vs. Evonne S. Hopkins (D)
• Senate District 11 (Franklin, Nash, and Vance Counties): D+0.8. Candidates: Sen. Lisa Barnes (R) vs. James Gailliard (D)
• House District 24 (Nash and Wilson Counties): D+2.0. Candidates: Rep. Dante Pittman (D) vs. Blake Boykin (R)
• House District 105 (Mecklenburg County): D+2.1. Candidates: Rep. Tricia Cotham (R) vs. Ken McCool (D)
• House District 115 (Buncombe County): D+2.4. Candidates: Rep. Lindsey Prather (D) vs. Anthony Penland (R)
• Senate District 18 (Granville and Wake Counties): D+2.5 (Open Seat). Candidates: Haseeb Fatmi (D) vs. Chris Stock (R)
• House District 5 (Camden, Gates, Hertford, and Pasquotank Counties): R+2.5. Candidates: Rep. Bill Ward (R) vs. Sam Davis III (D)
• Senate District 7 (New Hanover County): R+2.7. Candidates: Sen. Michael Lee (R) vs. Jessica Bichler (D)
• House District 73 (Cabarrus County): R+3.0. Candidates: Rep. Jonathan Almond (R) vs. Thomas Monks (D)

Most Republican-Leaning Districts (By 2026 PDS)

• Senate District 36 (Alexander, Surry, Wilkes, and Yadkin Counties): R+55.1. Candidates: Sen. Eddie Settle (R) vs. Trevor Hardwick (D)
• House District 94 (Alexander and Wilkes Counties): R+54.6. Candidates: Rep. Blair Eddins (R) vs. Andy Warren (D)
• House District 90 (Surry and Wilkes Counties): R+53.7 (Open Seat). Candidates: Dan Kiger (R) vs. Ken Badgett (D)
• House District 70 (Randolph County): R+50.3. Candidates: Rep. Brian Biggs (R) vs. Bill McCaskill (D)
• House District 77 (Davie, Rowan, and Yadkin Counties): R+50.2. Candidates: Rep. Julia Howard (R) vs. Sabrina Harris (D)

Most Democratic-Leaning Districts (By 2026 PDS)

• House District 30 (Durham County): D+74.4. Candidates: Rep. Marcia Morey (D), Unopposed
• House District 56 (Orange County): D+73.4. Candidates: Rep. Allen Buansi (D), Unopposed
• House District 29 (Durham County): D+71.1. Candidates: Rep. Vernetta Alston (D), Unopposed
• House District 99 (Mecklenburg County): D+68.5. Candidates: Veleria Levy (D), Unopposed
• House District 38 (Wake County): D+65.9. Candidates: Rep. Abraham P. Jones (D), Unopposed

The full 2026 Partisan District Scores are publicly available through NCFREE’s interactive online tool, which allows users to view all 170 House and Senate districts on a statewide map, toggle between chambers, and highlight any individual district of interest. NCFREE members receive additional proprietary analysis and insights beyond the public scores, including deeper district-level research and strategic context. For information on NCFREE membership, visit ncfree.org.

About NCFREE

NCFREE is North Carolina’s trusted, nonpartisan source of business intelligence and research for the business community. Since 1983, NCFREE has provided data-driven analysis of elections, the legislative landscape, and the economy to help business and civic leaders make informed decisions. As a 501(c)(3) nonprofit, NCFREE does not lobby or endorse candidates. Learn more at ncfree.org.