Budget Released, PDS Live, and More

This week the nation marks 250 years since the Declaration of Independence, and North Carolina’s fingerprints are all over that founding. On April 12, 1776, the Halifax Resolves made North Carolina the first colony to authorize its delegates to vote for independence, a distinction still carried on our state flag.

Two and a half centuries later, the free enterprise system those founders set in motion remains the engine of this state’s prosperity. That is the work NCFREE takes up every day, and there is nowhere we would rather do it than here in North Carolina.

NCFREE’s 2026 Partisan District Scores Are Live

Ahead of November’s elections, NCFREE’s most advanced business intelligence and research product to date is now publicly available. The 2026 Partisan District Scores (PDS) provide a district-by-district margin of underlying partisan advantage for all 120 North Carolina House districts and all 50 Senate districts.

This release moves beyond the composite snapshots of statewide races used in earlier versions. The 2026 model is trained directly on legislative results and layers in key demographic characteristics, isolating legislative partisanship from top-of-the-ticket races. The goal is to give business leaders, government affairs professionals, and civic leaders a clearer read on where partisan control is secure and where races are competitive.

Each score reflects a district’s approximate partisan advantage for a generic, non-incumbent candidate in a neutral environment, one in which the statewide legislative vote is tied. A district rated R+6, for example, suggests a generic Republican would win about 53 to 47 percent, while a D+6 district would indicate the same advantage for Democrats. The scores do not account for candidate quality, fundraising, current-cycle incumbency, or the partisan environment of a given year. Read the full methodology here.

Context: A neutral baseline does not mean today’s environment is neutral. Democrats currently hold a 5.7-point advantage on the generic ballot, based on the latest three-poll average.

North Carolina’s 2026 Political Landscape with FOX8’s Swing State

NCFREE recently had the opportunity to sit down with WGHP Fox8 anchor and senior reporter Bob Buckley on Swing State to discuss North Carolina’s 2026 political and legislative landscape in light of NCFREE’s newly released Partisan District Scores.

We walked through the chamber math heading into November, noting that Republicans are expected to retain the House majority, but that Democrats would need a larger wave environment to have a realistic shot at winning the chamber.

On the Senate side, we discussed that the floor for Republicans is higher, even in a more Democratic year, making the chamber unlikely to change hands. Retaining the 30-seat supermajority is on the table for Senate Republicans, though it may be a tall task.

The interview closed on a positive note about North Carolina’s broader outlook, where most of us agree: “There’s nowhere I would rather be if I’m a company or even a citizen of the United States of America than North Carolina.”

Watch the full interview here.

State Budget Update

The House and Senate both passed the long-awaited conference report for Senate Bill 257, the Current Operations Appropriations Act of 2026, with bipartisan majorities. The top-line figures have been widely reported, so below are some other top-line numbers that matter for North Carolina’s business community.

The budget spends $34.37 billion for fiscal year 2026-27 alongside an unusually strong savings position: more than $450 million added to the Rainy Day Fund (now above $4.2 billion), about $1 billion left unappropriated, and a new $1.33 billion Stabilization and Inflation Reserve that consolidates what were previously many separate reserves.

The most consequential tax change is about certainty, not rate. The prior schedule made every income tax cut below 3.99% conditional on revenue triggers. SB 257 locks in a guaranteed path to 2.99% by 2033, with separate triggers that can lower the rate further toward a 2.49% floor. For long-horizon planning, the shift from conditional to guaranteed is the real news.

On the widely covered items, teachers move to a $48,000 starting salary and an average 8% raise (more for early-in-career teachers), state employees receive 3% plus a one-time bonus, law enforcement sees larger schedule-based increases, and the budget releases $208.5 million for the NC Children’s Hospital and more than $700 million in additional Hurricane Helene relief.

We will keep tracking the budget’s progress and its practical effects across sectors.

News Clips

• NC Chamber: NC becomes first state to prohibit outside investment in litigation financing
• WRAL: Legislature takes up delivery drones, e-bikes, and driver’s license renewal modernization
• National Hockey League: Hurricanes’ Stanley Cup run generates $13.4 million in economic activity for Raleigh
• Truist: Raleigh-based Truist names Michael Lyons as its next chief executive
• WRAL: Durham, Raleigh among top 25 metro areas positioned for long-term economic growth
• CNBC: Martin Marietta strikes $13.5 billion deal to acquire lime supplier Lhoist North America
• Business NC: Credit union membership expansion bill heads to governor after clearing both chambers
• Triangle Business Journal: Research Triangle Park proposing new land-use framework to attract denser, mixed-use development
• WRAL: Federal funding resumes for Raleigh-to-Richmond rail corridor as construction stays ahead of schedule
• Triad Business Journal: Davidson County approves rezoning for nearly 1,200-acre industrial megasite
• Triangle Business Journal: Morrisville battery materials manufacturer eyes groundbreaking on 200-job facility
• The Center Square: Unaffiliated voters near 40% registration share as Republicans surpass Democrats statewide

Alex Baltzegar, Executive Director